Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

720
FXUS61 KBTV 250540
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
140 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief period of dry weather this morning with high pressure
building in. Better chances for widespread wetting rain will
arrive late this afternoon into Saturday associated with a
frontal system. Dry and warming conditions will follow for the
start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1231 AM EDT Friday...Regional radar mosaic shows quieter
weather now with the showers ended over northern and central VT
with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Lows will be in the
40s with some spotty upper 30s in the sheltered valleys. Some
patchy fog may develop over the CT River Valley in eastern VT.
We added some patchy fog with this update.

Previous discussion...
A warm front continues to be north of  northern NY with a weak
wave of low pressure moving along it. Some isolated to scattered
showers continue over northern NY and north-central VT early
this evening. The thunder has died out and has been removed from
the forecast. Some re-tooling of the PoPs based on the regional
mosaic and KENX radar. Rest of the forecast look on track.

A dry start can be expected for Friday, with some increasing
chances for precipitation throughout the afternoon into the
overnight hours as a surface low moves northward out of the
Great Lakes and a warm front lifts across the region Friday
night. Some embedded thunder may be possible given some elevated
instability and forcing along the front, especially Friday
evening. Temperatures during the day Friday will warm into the
upper 60s and 70s. Overnight temperatures will remain fairly
steady overnight with ongoing precipitation and cloud cover with
the warm front moving through, with temperatures staying in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Thursday...Moderate rainfall is expected Saturday
with a front moving through the region. Model analysis is relatively
unchanged in expected system evolution with the exception of a
marginal decrease in amounts of rain along the international border.
Still widespread 0.5-0.75" is projected with around 1" over higher
terrain and 0.25-0.66 of that falling Saturday after daybreak.
Ensemble and probabilistic guidance is suggesting marginally lower
totals than the current forecast across the St Lawrence Valley and
western slopes of the Adirondacks Saturday morning, but still in the
relative range of projected rainfall amounts. Strong front will pass
between noon and 4PM increasing W-NW winds causing gusts 20-30 mph
and a sharp fall in temperatures Saturday afternoon through the
overnight hours. Snow levels fall below peaks Saturday night with
generally around an inch or so of snow above 2500ft possible. Behind
the front, flow remains upslope with the cold core of the low moving
over the North Country. this will keep showers likely, especially
along the Canadian border and for the northern Green Mountains.
Highs Saturday will be warmest along the southern zones while
temperatures remain cooler towards the northern zones - 50s to low
60s north with upper 50s to mid 60s south. Overnight lows are
favored to dip into the 30s to around 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Thursday...Showers linger Sunday, but will be
diminishing as guidance favors increasing heights. Ensembles are
quite bullish with the approach and passage of a high amplitude
ridge as the flow pattern becomes unblocked and progressive.
Temperatures are projected to warm sharply Monday and Tuesday with
well above average highs favored in the mid/upper 70s. Should the
axis of the ridge passing Tuesday just east of the North Country and
warm air advection maximizes at peak daily heating, then
temperatures will exceed 75 percentile guidance approaching the
first 80s of the year for some locations in broader valleys.

Variability increases late Tuesday across model suites with blended
guidance remaining earlier Tuesday than latest deterministic trends.
Latest trends favor an evening/overnight passage of a strong frontal
system with potential for a convective line forming along the
prefrontal and frontal troughs. Should passage be closer to blended
guidance, chances for stronger convection will be possible. Leaned
the forecast more to the consensus of an overnight passage, but
maintained at least a slight chance of thunderstorms for now.
Temperature projections after the frontal passage remain mild with
guidance indicating more zonal flow aloft across Canada and moderate
amplitude ridging replacing the long wave trough by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected for the northern
NY and north-central VT TAF sites for most of the TAF cycle
ending 06Z/SAT. Sct-bkn mid level cloudiness continues for the
terminals this morning with some ridging building in from the
north. Some brief patchy fog may occur near KSLK in the IFR
range and a TEMPO group was used 06Z-10Z/FRI.  The dry weather
will persist most of the afternoon with clouds thickening and
lowering, as frontal boundary begins lifting northward from the
I-90 corridor of NY. Clouds bases lower to the 3.5-7 kft AGL
between 18Z/FRI and 04Z/SAT from south to north with VCSH groups
introduced at KRUT/KMPV initially between 18Z-20Z/FRI and then
expand further north shortly before or just after 00Z/SAT.
Showers may need to be added to several of the TAF sites after
00Z/SAT with an introduction at KMSS at 03Z/SAT.

The winds will vary in direction and be 4 KT or less this
morning. They will be from the north/northeast to the
east/southeast at less than 10 KT during the late morning into
the afternoon. The winds will be south/southeast at less than
10 KT after 00Z/SAT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night to Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX Tuesday: VFR.
Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer/NWS ALY
NEAR TERM...Kremer/NWS ALY
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...JMG/TAW at NWS ALY