Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

107
FXUS61 KBTV 180545
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1245 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected through the rest of today. Then gusty
winds, especially in the Champlain Valley, and a mix of rain
and snow are expected for Saturday. Following a quick period of
snow Sunday night into Monday, very cold conditions are likely
early next week. Temperature readings below zero and wind
chills of -10 to-20 F are possible Tuesday morning and Wednesday
morning. Gradual warming and a return to drier weather will
return for the latter half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1234 AM EST Saturday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Temperatures should hold steady or rise
slightly overnight as south winds continue to increase,
particularly in the Champlain Valley. Light returns can be seen
on radar, scooting along the international border, but webcams
and surface obs indicate this is just virga with nothing
reaching the ground. Skies should remain cloudy to mostly
cloudy, though a few clearer breaks may move through from time
to time. Forecast has this covered and remains in good shape at
this time.

Previous discussion...A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
northeastern portions of the Champlain Valley from 2 AM through
5 PM Saturday. South wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected,
mainly along the eastern shores of Lake Champlain. Any floating
ice will be transported north, and there may be a brief window
for freezing spray while temperatures remain around 30-32
degrees. This region is accustomed to strong south wind gusts,
but isolated power outages may still occur.

For the rest of today, quiet weather will prevail. Cloudy skies and
light flurries continue meandering through the region with
relatively light winds and near to above normal temperatures. So
it`s really a great start to the weekend, but tomorrow will not be
quite so pleasant.

South winds will increase overnight as a 50-55 knot low-level jet
develops ahead of an incoming cold front. Forecast soundings
continue to highlight an inversion sinking towards about 1500-2500
ft above ground level. Below ridge tops will limit downslope winds,
but the unidirectional south flow where winds are still 45-50 knots
at the top of the mixed layer should promote strongest gusts in the
Champlain Valley. Outside the Champlain Valley, wind gusts of 25 to
35 mph are expected. Within the Northeastern Champlain Valley, gusts
of 40 to 50 mph are expected, perhaps locally to 55 mph near the
shores of Lake Champlain. The core of the strongest winds are likely
between about 6 AM and 2 PM before things quiet down as the frontal
axis helps relax the gradient and bring in precipitation that will
begin to stabilize conditions.

There is not much change to report with regards to the frontal
boundary. It still appears precipitation in association with the
front, and a small piece of energy that peels north from a
developing coastal system well south will traverse the region. The
Champlain Valley will have the least precipitation due to channeled
flow. Generally about 0.10-0.25" of liquid is expected to just a
few hundredths in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will range
from about 32-38 as precipitation arrives. So warmer areas will
likely see some rain mix in. Generally just a dusting to an
inch of new snow is expected, and maybe 2" in higher elevations.
Cold air will arrive Saturday night. Sunday`s high temperature
will likely be whatever it is at midnight as 30s become teens to
mid 20s. There could be some black ice depending on how quickly
winds slacken and how much precipitation falls.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...A surface low pressure system will track
northeastward from the Carolinas towards the New England coast on
Sunday. By 00z Monday, the low will be very close to Long Island,
NY. How close this low tracks to the New England coast will play a
huge part in how much snow we see for Northern New York and Vermont.
Still not a lot of model to model consistency with this low track,
but some of the 12z models have shown a trend further north and
west. Therefore, have increased probabilities of precipitation and
also QPF and snow amounts for our area. Rutland, Windsor and Orange
counties could end up seeing advisory level snowfall, but not enough
confidence yet to issue a headline at this time. Current forecast
shows QPF ranging from just a trace in the St Lawrence valley, up to
three tenths of an inch in the aforementioned three counties. This
corresponds to a trace to five inches of snow. Will continue to
monitor trends for the Sunday into Sunday night timeframe, and will
have a better idea as we get closer and hopefully gain some model
agreement. Temperatures will be quite cold in the short term with
daytime highs on Sunday in the teens to lower 20s, and overnight
minimum temperatures Sunday night dipping into the single digits
above and below zero. With these cold temperatures, snow ratios are
expected to be quite high, providing us with some nice fluffy snow.
The snow will fall mainly between 18z Sunday and 12z Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...The extended portion of the forecast will
feature quieter weather, with temperatures below seasonal normals
all week. A couple different surface highs will spend some time over
our region, and only minimal chances for additional light snow are
forecasted. Big forecast concern for next week will be potential for
dangerous cold. Maximum temperatures will be in the single digits to
lower teens Monday through Wednesday, with minimum temperatures
dipping below zero each night. Will need to monitor temperatures for
potential cold headlines. Temperatures will start to warm again
Thursday and Friday as cold surface ridge begins to break down and
slide eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...The primary aviation concern will be
developing strong winds and associated low level wind shear and
turbulence at our TAF sites through Saturday. South winds 15 to
25 kt with gusts of 25 to 40 kt are likely between through 18z Saturday,
with the strongest gusts at KBTV. VFR conditions will continue
through 16z, then lowering to MVFR through the remainder of the
TAF period. A mix of rain and snow develops after 18z from west
to east across our TAF sites, with visibility trending toward
MVFR by 21z, mainly at KSLK/KMPV/KMSS, with some IFR visibility
likely after 00z in light snow, except at KBTV/KPBG/KRUT. A cold
front will start to move through from west to east after 02z,
turning winds to the west/northwest, but remaining gusty to
25-30 kt.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings/Taber